Almost half of Somerset County's registered voters are now unaffiliated, but they can swing the results in the primary election.
While the majority of Somerset County's registered voters no longer identify themselves as Republican or Democrat, they can have an impact on the outcome of Tuesday's primary by declaring their party affiliation prior to voting.
As of June 1, of Somerset County's registered voters, nearly half - 104,106 - are now unaffiliated while the number of registered Democrats - 56,337 - exceeds those registered as Republican - 51,837, according to the New Jersey Division of Elections.
In New Jersey, unaffiliated voters can declare themselves as Republican or Democrat on Tuesday, even at the polls. Only Republican and Democrat candidates appear on the ballot during the state's primary.
Hillary Clinton has been campaigning heavily in New Jersey heading into the primary as challenger Bernie Sanders has announced his intention to remain in the race for the Democrat nomination, making New Jersey a key part of this year's presidential primary. Republican Donald Trump already has enough delegates to get his party's nod.
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While Republicans still hold virtually every major elected county political office, a win in Tuesday's primary election no longer automatically punches a candidate's ticket to victory in the general election, said Jerry Midgette, administrator of the Somerset County Board of Elections.
"I would think that since you have a majority of unaffiliated voters here in Somerset County, anyone who wins a primary isn't necessarily guaranteed a victory in the general election," Midgette said. "You have to go out, interact with voters and make your case."
Republicans represent the county in the state Senate and Assembly, hold all five Freeholder positions and 17 of the 20 municipal mayoral posts.
"I would say that if you look at how the county is run and how the county is administered, many voters look at that as the driving factor in deciding who they vote for," said Midgette.
As of June 1, a total of 7,317 have registered as new voters in Somerset County in 2016, with 54 percent registering as unaffiliated, according to the Somerset County Board of Elections. Of the 46 percent who did chose a party affiliation, 31 percent chose Democrat and 15 percent Republican.
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During the same period in 2016, 422 registered Democrats and 277 registered Republicans in the county made the switch to unaffiliated, the data showed.
"It may be simply that some Democrats and some Republicans, knowing that in order to vote in the other party's primary coming up, they're switching their voter registration to Unaffiliated in order to be able to do that," said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute. "They're going to make their decision on June 7 as to which primary they're going to vote in. It has always been the case that when you get new voters, the majority are going to be unaffiliated.
"I don't see anything right now that suggests that is on an uptick."
Midgette said he doesn't have any empirical data to support why voters are choosing to register as unaffiliated, but he said if you look across the electorate, that is the trend nationwide. He added that the increase in Democrat voters in Somerset County is a reflection of what is happening across the state.
"In looking at the border dynamics of what is going on in the state and the country as a whole, New Jersey has always been more Democrat-affiliated and Somerset County is just reflecting more of that than it has in the past," said Midgette.
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Murray said that before 2008, Republicans had a nine-point advantage over the Democrats in Somerset County. Now, Democrats hold a two-point advantage over Republican, he said.
"It has been growing over the past three years," said Murray. "I think it has to do somewhat with voter registration changing and somewhat with migration patterns into Somerset County."
In 2000, there were 23,252 registered Democrats in Somerset County compared to the current 56,337, according to the New Jersey Division of Elections. In that same year, there were 36,196 registered Republicans compared to the current 51,837.
Registered Democrat voters spiked from 23,446 in 2004 to 50,005 in 2008 in Somerset County, according to the New Jersey Division of Elections. Registered Republican voters increased from 38,564 to 48,874 during that same period.
Dave Hutchinson may be reached at dhutchinson@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him on Twitter @DHutch_SL. Find NJ.com on Facebook.